Cocoa Down 12% in November on Positive Market News

Cocoa prices have plunged more than 12% in November, slipping to $5,401 per ton and deepening a downward trend that has stretched from June to October.

The drop marks a dramatic reversal for a commodity that soared 177% in 2024 to a peak of $11,675, before entering a prolonged decline at the start of 2025. Short-lived rallies in April and May failed to halt the broader slide.

The latest sell-off accelerated after the Trump administration announced a 10% reciprocal tariff reduction on commodities not produced in the United States. Analysts say improving weather conditions in key West African suppliers—especially Ivory Coast and Ghana—have further eased supply pressures.

Producers in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa grower, report that more beans are likely to hit the market in December, with many cocoa pods now nearing maturity.

Weather supports crop prospects

Farmers say light rainfall across Ivory Coast has helped small and mid-sized pods develop ahead of the seasonal Harmattan winds, which typically sweep in from the Sahara between December and March.

They add that moderate rains could lengthen the main crop and support a harvest that surpasses last year’s output.

“The light rains are helping the trees, but we still need more rain until mid-December because it’s very hot,” said Donatien Adou, a farmer near Yamoussoukro.

“There is a lot of cocoa on the trees right now, and we think the harvest will remain strong into next year,” added Salame Kone, who farms near Soubre, where 7.6 mm of rain fell last week—12.3 mm below the average.

Conditions this year sharply contrast with 2024, when heavy rainfall, particularly in the southwest, intensified from late September. The excessive moisture disrupted harvesting, hindered drying, and delayed bean transport, helping drive an 80% year-to-date price surge by mid-October 2024.

Market direction in 2025

Cocoa entered 2025 at $10,950 but soon faced heavy selling pressure, dropping below $8,000 after the first quarter to $7,888.

A short rebound followed in the second quarter, with prices climbing more than 16%. April and May delivered the only monthly gains of 2025 and accounted for most of that recovery.

The momentum faded by June, and prices resumed their downward trend through the third quarter, falling below $7,500, with September marking the sharpest losses.

The slump continued into October, when cocoa slid more than 8% to $6,151. Weakness persisted in November, with prices now below $6,000 at $5,403—more than 12% lower for the month.

Overall, cocoa prices have fallen more than 50% since the start of the year.